The Indianapolis Colts’ Collapse? A Deep Dive Into a Make-or-Break 2025 Season

The Indianapolis Colts have lingered on the edge of competitiveness for years—but 2025 might be the season the bottom finally falls out. Despite a flurry of off-season activity that saw long-awaited roster upgrades and fresh leadership, the central issues haunting this franchise remain, particularly at quarterback. As division rivals like the Jaguars and Texans sharpen their identities, the Colts’ direction feels increasingly uncertain.

In this breakdown of Locked on Titans’ Division Rival Week, I explore the Indianapolis Colts’ off-season moves, roster reshuffling, and the brutal reality they may face: a 5-12 finish and last place in the AFC South.

Colts Finally Act… But Is It Too Late?

For years, Colts fans pleaded with the front office to invest meaningfully in key areas. This off-season, General Manager Chris Ballard finally answered the call. The Colts invested in their struggling secondary, added real quarterback competition, hired a new defensive coordinator, and drafted aggressively to fill roster holes.

On paper, it’s the kind of off-season fans have long wanted. They signed cornerback Charvarius Ward—arguably one of the NFL’s most underrated defensive backs—and brought over safety Cam Bynum from Minnesota. These signings should solidify a once-leaky secondary. Additionally, they poached respected defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo from Cincinnati, hoping his more dynamic scheme can revitalize the defense after Gus Bradley’s stale and predictable tenure.

Offensively, the Colts bolstered their backfield by signing Khalil Herbert to complement Jonathan Taylor and added dynamic tight end Tyler Warren in the draft. Warren could finally give Shane Steichen the kind of tight end who can block and catch—an element that's been missing since Jack Doyle's retirement. They even drafted Ohio State edge rusher JT Tuimoloau and running back DJ Giddens in the mid-rounds.

These moves check the boxes. But will it be enough?

The Elephant in the Room: Quarterback Play

Everything still hinges on the quarterback.

Anthony Richardson, the team’s 2023 first-round pick, was once hailed as the future of the franchise. But after repeated injuries—including a recurrence of a rookie-year shoulder issue—his availability and mental readiness are serious concerns. Missing mandatory minicamp and potentially training camp, Richardson’s future in Indianapolis is murky.

Enter Daniel Jones. Signed this offseason as insurance (or perhaps a quiet replacement), Jones is an athletic QB with starting experience and a playoff win under his belt. He’s capable in the RPO game and can keep the offense on schedule—if the pieces around him click.

But as host Tyler Roland bluntly put it: “If Daniel Jones wins the battle over Anthony Richardson, all hope for Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis is officially lost.”

Jake Arthur of Locked on Colts echoed that concern. While still holding out hope for Richardson, he noted that Daniel Jones has looked composed and efficient in camp, getting the ball out quickly and spreading it around. He may not be electric, but he’s functional. That might be all the Colts need—or can hope for.

Losses That Hurt

For all their gains, the Colts also suffered key losses:

Ryan Kelly, longtime center and captain of the offensive line, is gone. Replacing his experience with rookie Tanner Bortolini is a gamble.
Will Fries, a starting-caliber guard, is out, forcing more change on a line that had long benefited from continuity.
Dayo Odeyingbo, a promising pass rusher, left for Chicago.
E.J. Speed, one of the Colts’ more athletic linebackers, is gone—further weakening a linebacker corps already gutted by Shaquille Leonard’s departure.

These losses may not grab headlines, but they create instability at the exact spots where a shaky quarterback like Daniel Jones needs protection and support.

A Good Roster—But Not Good Enough

There’s a belief in NFL circles that the Colts have a solid roster. And they do—sort of. The wide receiver group is deep: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell form a solid quartet. But Pittman is more of a WR2 than a true No. 1, and he's currently battling a back issue.

At tight end, Tyler Warren offers upside, but he's still a rookie. The offensive line? It still boasts Quenton Nelson, a perennial All-Pro, but with two new starters on the interior, the group could struggle early.

The defense has depth on the line—DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Adetomiwa Adebawore, and Samson Ebukam—but lacks a true game-changing edge rusher. Quiddy Pay has yet to fully develop, and Tuimoloau may take time to adjust. The linebacker group, once a strength, is now alarmingly thin behind Zaire Franklin.

In short: the Colts are filled with "good" players. But not enough great ones. And if the quarterback is merely serviceable, you need greatness elsewhere.

Steichen’s Final Test?

Shane Steichen enters his third year with the most complete offense he’s had in Indianapolis. If there’s a time to prove he’s the right head coach, it’s now. The pieces—while imperfect—are in place. A good tight end, a capable (if inconsistent) quarterback, and a defense with added playmakers.

As Jake Arthur put it, “It’s kind of now or never. He’s either going to be the real deal or not. We’re going to see really firmly one way or another.”

But the odds aren’t in his favor. With instability at QB, a restructured O-line, and an untested defense under a new coordinator, the Colts could crumble under pressure.

Prediction: A Disappointing 5-12 Finish

Roland doesn’t mince words. He predicts a 5-12 record and last place in the AFC South.

His rationale is simple: while the Colts have been able to remain competitive in past years regardless of who was under center—thanks to a strong overall roster—this year’s roster isn’t quite as solid. Offensive line continuity is gone, key defenders have left, and the quarterback position is, at best, uncertain.

And even if Daniel Jones plays well, it’s unlikely he can elevate the team beyond mediocrity. He’s not the kind of quarterback who wins you games—he's someone you can win with if everything else is perfect. That’s a dangerous tightrope for any NFL franchise.

Final Thoughts: A Franchise at a Crossroads

The Colts’ 2025 season could go one of two ways:

Optimistic Scenario: Daniel Jones finds his footing, the O-line gels, the defense improves under Anarumo, and the Colts sneak into the playoffs.
Pessimistic Reality: Anthony Richardson fades out, Daniel Jones proves average, the line crumbles under inexperience, and the Colts finally implode after years of treading water.

Roland leans toward the latter.

After years of skirting the rebuild, the Colts may have no choice but to face it head-on in 2026.